Wednesday, September 02, 2009

IMF: World Economic Growth To Resume in 2010

WSJ -- The IMF expects the global economy to expand at slightly less than 3% in 2010, said Jörg Decressin, a senior IMF economist, higher than the IMF's July estimate of 2.5%.

The chart above plots IMF data for real World GDP growth rates from 1980 to 2008 (actual) and 2009 to 2014 (projected). The IMF currently estimating that real world GDP will contract by 1.4% in 2009, with positive economic growth resuming in 2010 with a 2.5% expansion in world real GDP (data here).

Despite a global economic slowdown in 2009, the future looks pretty bright for world economic growth according to IMF forecasts of a resumption of 4-5% positive growth in the world economy starting in 2011 and continuing through 2014.

The chart above also shows the steep, upward trend line for world real GDP since 1980. Due to increased productivity, technological improvements, greater world trade, and the spread of free market capitalism around the world among other positive long-term trends, the trend in world economic output has increased by a full percentage point since 1980 (see trend line above), from less than 3% in 1980 to almost 4% today.

Bottom Line: One year of a global slowdown doesn't seem so bad during a 35-year period of unprecedented global expansion, characterized by a positive upward trend in the world economy that has boosted the annual growth in world output by a full 1% since 1980.

7 Comments:

At 9/02/2009 11:33 AM, Anonymous Benny The Real Man said...

Asia is growing already. A 20-year boom is ahead. Tons fo capital ready to be invested, tons of R&D going on globally, gobs of VC guys everywhere.
This boom will make the last 20years look like a warm-up.

 
At 9/02/2009 1:44 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

It should be noted, the U.S. had a structural bull market from 1982, when the Information Revolution began, to 2000, when the tech bubble burst.

Since 2000, the U.S. has been in a structural bear market, and it's currently loaded with household and government debt, from household overconsumption in the 2000s, and the recent government spending spree. Obama believes we cannot afford another bubble, and wants to take more action to prevent one. So, it's possible, the U.S. will have a Japanese style Lost Decade.

 
At 9/02/2009 3:16 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don't be surprised if growth remains very weak through 2011.

 
At 9/02/2009 4:18 PM, Blogger bob wright said...

Here's what Bill Gross thinks about the future of the U.S. economy.

 
At 9/02/2009 4:23 PM, Anonymous Junkyard_hawg1985 said...

Dang it! Just when I started to have hope that the world economy would rebound next year, the witch doctors at the IMF go and predict global growth. Based on past performance by the IMF, we must have a double dip coming.

 
At 9/02/2009 5:25 PM, Blogger 1 said...

"Based on past performance by the IMF, we must have a double dip coming"...

I think you just might have something there...

IMF Revises Bulgaria Debt Estimate after Serious Mistake
May 13, 2009, Wednesday

IMF admits mistakes in Argentina crisis
30 Jul 2004

NEW IMF GOLD SALES PLAN
FACES CONGRESSIONAL SCRUTINY
-- Full Transparency Needed For Evaluation of IMF Proposal --

September 30, 1999

 
At 9/03/2009 7:51 AM, Blogger 31SVH said...

Benny,

You are so right!!!! Everyone's head is clouded with pessimism today they can't see the huge transformations going on around them...just look at the research and development spending by a company like Intel...during the financial collapse they invested in a next gen fabrication plant to the tune of $7B!

People are making the "Giant Error of Pessimism" (Achuthan) right now that happens after every TEMPORARY downturn. When have recessions/bear markets not been TEMPORARY?? Answer: Never.

 

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